- Intel posted Q4 2025 revenue of about $13.7B (down ~4% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.15, beating estimates as Data Center & AI strength offset a weak PC business.
- Q1 2026 guidance disappointed, with revenue of $11.7-$12.7B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.00 versus Street expectations near $12.6B and $0.05-$0.08.
- Intel cited supply constraints and manufacturing ramp risks (including new node execution) as key headwinds, with improvement expected later in 2026.
- Broader Q4 earnings are projected to grow ~8.2-8.3% YoY for the S&P 500, but gains remain concentrated in Big Tech as the “Magnificent Seven” outpace the rest of the index.
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Intel’s Q4 2025 results showed mixed signals: the company beat on top- and bottom-line metrics, aided by strength in AI and data-center demand, while its legacy PC/Client unit continued to erode. Revenue of $13.7 B exceeded consensus ($13.4 B) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 significantly beat expectations of ~$0.08. However, the outlook for Q1 2026 was the market’s focal point: revenue guidance (midpoint $12.2 B) and EPS guidance ($0.00) came in well below forecast (~$12.6 B and ~$0.05-$0.08), largely due to ongoing supply constraints and manufacturing ramp challenges (notably with Intel’s 18A node).
The wider macro and market backdrop reinforces the significance of this guidance miss. According to FactSet, as of late January, the S&P 500 was expected to deliver ~8.2-8.3% earnings growth YoY in Q4 2025, driven heavily by the Information Technology sector. While eight of eleven S&P sectors are expected to grow earnings, Consumer Discretionary (among others) is forecast to decline.
The “Magnificent Seven” group—Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Nvidia—are anticipated to post ~19-20% earnings growth in aggregate for Q4, which dwarfs the ~4-5% projected for the remainder of the S&P 500 excluding this group.[1news13] This creates a bifurcated earnings landscape: growth is increasingly concentrated among the largest tech names, while most other sectors show modest expansion or decline.
Strategically, Intel’s results highlight both opportunity and risk. On the plus side, demand for AI infrastructure continues to validate investment in its DCAI segment; on the downside, Intel’s manufacturing execution, supply chain constraints, and product mix issues are limiting its ability to translate AI tailwinds into consistent profit growth. Intel’s ability to improve yield, manage node transitions (18A, Intel 7), and deliver supply relief in H2 2026 will be critical. Meanwhile, investor expectations for the broader market will center on whether earnings growth can broaden beyond the tech elite to support more sustainable valuation expansion.
Open questions include: Can Intel restore credibility on forward guidance in coming quarters? When will supply constraints meaningfully ease? How much downside risk exists if macro pressures (interest rates, tariffs, consumer weakness) worsen? And can non-tech sectors join the growth party, or will we witness a sharp rotation out of AI/Big Tech dominance?
Supporting Notes
- Intel Q4 2025 revenue was $13.7 B, down ~4% YoY; non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 vs Street estimate ~$0.08.
- Intel’s Q1 2026 revenue guidance $11.7-12.7 B (midpoint $12.2 B) and EPS guidance at breakeven non-GAAP; consensus was for ~$12.6 B revenue and ~$0.05-$0.08 EPS.
- Supply constraints noted as a significant headwind; Intel stated that supply availability would hit a trough in Q1 2026 with expected improvement later in the year.
- FactSet estimates ~8.2-8.3% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q4 2025; ten consecutive quarters of positive earnings growth if realized.
- “Magnificent Seven” projected to report ~20% aggregate earnings growth in Q4, compared to only ~4-5% for the other ~493 companies in the index.[1news13]
- The growth rate among the “Magnificent Seven” is weakening relative to past highs; Q3 2025 growth noted as the lowest since Q1 2023 (≈18.4% including a tax charge; ≈30% excluding that item). [1search5][1news13]