- SpaceX is sounding out Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley for senior roles on a potential 2026 IPO, with no final mandates set.
- Morgan Stanley is viewed as the early favorite for the lead underwriter role due to its longstanding relationship with Elon Musk.
- Secondary trades value SpaceX around $800 billion, while IPO scenarios discussed include raising over $25 billion at a $1–$1.5 trillion valuation.
- Feasibility and timing hinge on Starlink-led growth, heavy investment needs such as Starship, and broader market conditions.
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The preparatory steps SpaceX is taking suggest a serious IPO strategy for 2026. The selection process for lead banks is underway, with four major firms—Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley—being considered for senior roles. However, as of now, the „lead left“ position (the primary underwriter) is unconfirmed; Morgan Stanley is considered the strongest candidate due to its close and deep historical relationship with Elon Musk.
Valuation is a central matter. Secondary share sales in December 2025 valued SpaceX at about US$800 billion, while IPO projections aim for US$1 to US$1.5 trillion; amounts to be raised exceed US$25 billion. Achieving the upper range would likely demand not just strong operational performance but favorable market conditions.
Revenue generation is increasingly driven by Starlink, now contributing a majority of SpaceX’s income. In 2025, overall revenues reportedly reached US$15.5 billion, with only about US$1.1 billion from NASA contracts; analysts see growth accelerating into 2026. However, scaling of Starship, space‐based AI infrastructure, and other ambitious projects demands sustained capital investment and consistent delivery.
Market conditions pose the greatest uncertainty. The IPO is explicitly contingent on execution and macroeconomic and regulatory environment. Given the size of the transaction, global capital markets’ appetite for mega-IPOs, tech valuations, interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risk will heavily influence timing, valuation, and investor confidence.
Strategic implications: if successful, SpaceX’s IPO could redefine public market benchmarks—raising valuation expectations for space tech, AI-infrastructure ventures, and companies with dual business models combining hardware and service platforms. The lead bank role will carry prestige and financial upside, especially given the potential residual stakes and subsequent capital raises. But misalignment between expectation and delivery (financial or technical) could result in poor performance or reputational risks for both SpaceX and its bankers.
Open questions include how detailed the IPO prospectus will break out segment revenues (launch vs Starlink vs new ventures), whether SpaceX will use IPO proceeds for primary capital or mainly for secondary transactions, and how regulatory frameworks (e.g., spectrum, space law, licensing) will affect long-term profitability. Also unclear is whether SpaceX will consider segment spin-offs (e.g. Starlink) before or after going public, and who ultimately wins the lead underwriting role.
Supporting Notes
- SpaceX has engaged senior investment banking roles from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley for a potential IPO, per the Financial Times and Reuters.
- Morgan Stanley is seen as emerging frontrunner for the lead underwriter (“lead left”) owing to its historic ties with Musk, though no bank has been formally appointed.
- Recent secondary share sales place SpaceX’s valuation near US$800 billion, with IPO targets ranging from US$25 billion in capital raised to full valuations of US$1–1.5 trillion.
- 2025 revenue is estimated at approximately US$15.5 billion, only about US$1.1 billion of which derives from NASA contracts; Starlink is reported to be the dominant revenue driver.
- The IPO timing remains provisional—SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen has said the offering depends heavily on execution and favorable market conditions.
- There is speculation that other mega-private companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.) are similarly eyeing public listings in 2026, which could influence investor sentiment and capital flows.