- Rokos Capital Management returned about 21% in 2025 after roughly 31% in 2024, managing around $22 billion.
- For the year to March 31, 2025, operating profit jumped to about £925 million on £1.2 billion of revenue.
- Macro peers also surged but results diverged, with Bridgewater and Discovery up roughly 33%–36% while some Brevan Howard funds lagged.
- Rokos raised its performance fee share to 25% and plans to cap assets near $20 billion, leaning on concentrated discretionary macro risk-taking led by Chris Rokos.
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The performance of Rokos Capital in 2025 reflects both firm-specific strength and broader tailwinds across the macro hedge fund landscape. Rokos’ double-digit 21% return indicates skillful navigation of volatility—particularly in markets driven by trade tension, geopolitical risk, and inflationary pressures. Its returns compare favorably against industry expectations, though they trail some peers like Bridgewater and Discovery.
The jump in profitability and revenue, underpinned by strong returns and a rising fee share for profits, points to enhanced operating leverage and possibly higher margins for the firm. The magnitude of payouts (for example, £477 million to Chris Rokos) shows both high financial reward but also raises questions about sustainability and alignment with investors when fees and size grow.
Asset capping at ~$20 billion and returning investor capital suggests recognition of diminishing marginal returns with scale in macro trading. It is a disciplined move amid recent academic and practitioner debate about size constraints for hedge funds. The firm’s strategy of concentrated risk-taking, largely driven by Rokos himself, contrasts with multistrategy diversification used by many peers. Such a model can outperform in dislocated markets but may generate more pronounced drawdowns when macro trends reverse.
Comparatively, while some macro funds massively outperformed, others significantly underperformed—Brevan Howard’s Master and Alpha funds being prime examples. This divergence underscores that in the current macro regime, organizational structure, agility, risk-taking approach, and whether one has exposure to profitable macro assets (currencies, rates, commodities, volatility) matter materially.
Strategic implications for investors: the current environment rewards macro managers capable of volatility-based strategies and directional bets. However, concerns include concentration risk, fee pressures—and the possibility that if macro drivers shift (for example, alleviated trade tensions, lower inflation), returns may compress. Rokos’ move to cap AUM and increase fees suggests an internal view that future incremental capital will be harder to deploy profitably.
Open questions include: How sustainable is the current macro-driven upside? Can Rokos maintain its edge as markets evolve? Will high volatility be a permanent regime or something that firms need to bet against? And how will regulatory or tax regimes respond to rising hedge fund payouts and fee models?
Supporting Notes
- Rokos’ 2025 performance: ~21% return in 2025 on ~$22 billion in assets under management.
- Earlier half-year performance: about 12.3% gain in first half of 2025 including a ~2.6% gain in June.
- Operating profit rose 247% to £924.6 million; revenue increased to £1.2 billion for year ending March 31, 2025 — up from £445.5 million revenue and profit of ~£266.2 million the prior year.
- Chris Rokos personally earned approximately £477 million from profits in that fiscal period.
- Comparison with peers: Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha +33%; Discovery Capital +35.6%; D.E. Shaw Oculus ~28.2%; while Brevan Howard’s Master and Alpha funds achieved ~0.8% and ~8%, respectively.
- Strategic fee change: Raising fees to retain 25% of trading profits.
- Asset cap plan: Firm plans to cap AUM at ~$20 billion and return excess capital.
- Macro hedge funds overall delivered double-digit returns in 2025; Goldman Sachs reported stock-picking hedge funds averaged ~16.24% in 2025, similar to S&P 500’s ~16.4%.