- Stocks rallied Jan. 9 with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closing at record highs after a mixed jobs report showed weak payroll growth but a lower unemployment rate.
- Markets interpreted the data as supportive of a soft-landing and a Fed path toward eventual rate cuts if inflation stays contained.
- Meta signed nuclear power deals with Vistra, Oklo, and TerraPower for up to 6.6 GW by 2035 to fuel AI and data-center growth.
- Goldman Sachs sees unusually low implied earnings-season volatility, leaving room for upside surprises, especially outside tech.
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The closing of all the major U.S. stock indexes at record highs on January 9 suggests that markets are betting on a soft landing scenario: modest job growth, falling unemployment, and a tilt toward lower interest rates. The U.S. jobs report showed only 50,000 jobs added in December, falling short of expectations; yet the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, the lowest level in several months. Markets seem to have viewed the weak payroll number as tolerable—so long as inflation pressures stay muted, giving the Federal Reserve leeway to maintain current rates before easing.
Also driving sentiment are sector-specific catalysts: most notably, the energy-tech nexus exemplified by Meta’s sweeping nuclear energy deals. These reflect a strategic shift: as AI infrastructure demands scale, firms are investing in clean, reliable power, and Meta’s 6.6 GW commitment represents a landmark in private sector energy purchasing. It underwrites both legacy nuclear plant extensions and advanced nuclear builds—WSVs like Vistra gain by stabilizing cash flows and extending plant lifespans; startups like TerraPower and Oklo receive critical capital, off-take certainty, and regulatory momentum.
Goldman Sachs’ guidance for the upcoming earnings season identifies unusually low implied volatility expectations, with ~4.5% average stock moves forecasted, down from ~5.4% two quarters ago. Sectors such as utilities, materials, industrials, and healthcare are tagged for potential surprise moves—both up and down—while tech is seen as less volatile overall. Given Meta’s massive energy and AI bets, its future earnings exposure includes both upside (efficiency gains, power cost control, energy supply certainty) and challenges (capital intensity, regulatory risk, technological and execution risk with new nuclear reactors).
Strategic implications include: long-term energy supply chains are becoming key competitive differentiators for AI and cloud players; energy firms that partner likely gain access to non-dilutive capital; capital markets will increasingly price in regulatory risk (tariffs, environmental rules, nuclear licensing); and central banks’ path for interest rates remains heavily data-dependent. Open questions surround nuclear permitting, cost trajectories for SMRs, the timeline and scale of Fed policy shifts, and legal outcomes regarding past tariffs under Supreme Court review.
Supporting Notes
– U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December 2025; expectations were for ~70,000; November revised to ~56,000.
– Unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5% in November; expectations had been ~4.5%.
– Meta’s deals: up to 6.6 GW of nuclear power by 2035 across agreements with Vistra, Oklo, TerraPower; includes energy from existing plants, uprates, and new SMRs.
– Vistra component: >2.1 GW from its Perry, Davis-Besse (Ohio) and Beaver Valley (Pennsylvania) plants; plus 433 MW uprates.
– Oklo deal: advanced reactor campus in Pike County, Ohio—up to 1.2 GW, first phase online as early as 2030.
– TerraPower: two Natrium reactors totaling ~690 MW by 2032; rights for up to six more units adding ~2.1 GW by 2035.
– Goldman: implied volatility expectations for post-earnings moves ~4.5%, sector opportunities highest in utilities, healthcare, materials, industrials; tech expected less volatile.