- U.S. IPOs have rebounded in 2025, led by Medline’s ~$6.3B deal and 40%+ first-day jump.
- Big debuts like Figma, Circle and Chime have surged far beyond typical IPO pops, fueling claims that bankers are underpricing and leaving issuer money on the table.
- Issuance and proceeds are up year over year, driven by tech, AI infrastructure and fintech, but policy, rates, SEC timing and post-IPO volatility remain key risks.
- Bankers are already positioning for a potentially blockbuster 2026 pipeline, with concerns about valuation discipline and market capacity to absorb multiple mega-deals.
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Medline’s IPO has acted as a litmus test for the current IPO environment. By raising approximately $6.3 billion in its offering and achieving first-day gains exceeding 40 percent over its $29 IPO price, Medline not only set the benchmark for U.S. IPOs in 2025 but signaled that investor appetite remains robust for large, mature companies outside purely speculative tech sectors. The fact that Medline’s raise alone represents over 10 percent of 2025’s total IPO volume underscores both the scale of mounting blockbuster expectations and the reliance on few large deals to carry the momentum.
While headline IPO metrics are strong—volume, number, and proceeds all up year-over-year—there is increasing concern around pricing strategy. Major IPOs including Figma, Circle, CoreWeave and Chime saw extraordinary first-day pops (e.g. Figma ~250 percent, Circle ~168 percent), well above what underwriters traditionally aim for (≈15-20 percent), suggesting issuers may be underpricing their true value. Conservative pricing may protect against post-IPO volatility but comes at the cost of foregone capital and possibly misaligned expectations between issuers and institutions.
The drivers of the IPO resurgence include easing macroeconomic pressures (like moderating inflation and lower volatility), strong equity market performance, a backlog of high-growth private companies seeking exits, and sector tailwinds in AI, fintech, and infrastructure. These dynamics are complemented by regulatory shifts that resume IPO filings delayed by government shutdowns, and by policy expectations (interest rate cuts) that could further lower the hurdle for public transitions.
However, important risks remain. The IPO market’s rebound is fragile: government policy (tariffs, regulatory uncertainty), interest rate risk, and potential overvaluation in newly public companies pose the biggest threats. Smaller IPOs may find it harder to compete for investor attention given the dominance of large blockbusters. Also, overhangs such as upcoming lock-up expirations may introduce volatility in already richly priced IPOs.
Strategically, firms considering IPOs in 2026 must ensure they align with market readiness—demonstrating strong revenue growth or path to profitability, clear use of proceeds, institutional demand, and an understanding of whether to split their focus toward retail versus institutional investors. Underwriters, too, will need to recalibrate: either embrace more aggressive pricing (and risk) or devise structures that balance issuer upside with stable after-market performance. Bankers positioning for the anticipated wave of listings must also assess capacity: can markets absorb multiple large IPOs without diluting returns?
Supporting Notes
- Medline raised roughly $6.3 billion in its IPO, making it the largest U.S. IPO since 2021; its shares rose over 40% on the first day, trading under the symbol MDLN.
- Figma’s debut saw ~250% first-day gain; Circle Internet Group gained ~168% on debut; Chime surged ~59% in its first trading session.
- The 20 biggest U.S. IPOs in 2025 averaged a first-day gain of approximately 36%, far above the traditional 15-20% range often targeted by underwriters; estimated issuance was shortchanged by about $6.1 billion due to conservative pricing.
- In 2025, U.S. IPO volume (number of issuers) and total proceeds both rose materially year-over-year, outpacing 2024; through mid-December, ~336 IPOs priced, up ~55% from comparable period in 2024.
- Technology, AI infrastructure, fintech dominate sector performance; technology IPOs in H1 2025 had average first-day returns of ~27.5%, and many are trading many multiples above IPO price (e.g. CoreWeave, Circle).
- Anticipated IPOs for 2026 include SpaceX, Anthropic, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac; bankers are preparing pitches and reviewing advisory mandates amidst expectations for continued issuance.
- Risks include delayed SEC filings because of government shutdowns, policy headwinds such as tariffs, interest rate volatility, and concerns over saturated investor demand if multiple large drafts list simultaneously.