- Medline’s roughly $6.3B IPO—largest in the U.S. since 2021—signals blockbuster listings are back.
- Big first-day pops like Figma (~250%) and Circle (~168%) show strong demand but fuel criticism that IPOs are being underpriced.
- U.S. IPO activity rebounded in 2025 across tech, fintech, healthcare, and energy, with more mega-deals eyed for 2026 (e.g., SpaceX, Anthropic).
- Investors and bankers worry about market capacity, SEC delays, and macro risks, which are pushing cautious pricing and could limit proceeds.
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The IPO landscape in the U.S. in late 2025 shows that large, high-profile companies are returning to the public markets in force. Medline’s ~$6.3 billion IPO in mid‐December was a defining moment, not just for its size—largest since 2021—but also for the diversity of sectors showing strength: private equity, healthcare, and defense of stable cash flows .
Significant first‐day gains by IPOs like Figma (+250 %) and Circle (+168 %) suggest strong demand, particularly among institutional and retail investors hungry for participation. However, these gains also highlight a pattern: many IPOs are being priced conservatively, likely driven by heightened macroeconomic risks and underwriters’ desire to avoid downsides. The trade-off is that issuers may be leaving capital on the table, estimated in aggregate to be as much as $6 billion .
Looking ahead to 2026, expectations are building for an IPO wave led by SpaceX, Anthropic, and possibly others in AI/tech infrastructure. Market participants see a backlog of IPO-ready companies with stronger balance sheets and clearer paths to profitability—conditions that support large IPOs in a more stable rate and policy environment .
That said, there are risks. The ability of the equity market to absorb large issuances and maintain post‐IPO performance is untested at scale. Regulatory issues—like the SEC’s backlog—could shift timelines or strain process transparency. Moreover, valuation optimism must be tempered; some IPOs have already seen shares roll off from peak first‐day surges, which may unsettle investor expectations and influence pricing discipline .
Strategically, companies planning to go public may need to balance offering size, pricing, and retention of upside post‐listing. Underwriters could face pressure to be more aggressive in pricing or providing structures that share upside. Investors will likely focus not only on headline valuations but also on long-term metrics: recurring revenue, regulatory exposure, and defensibility of business models.
Supporting Notes
- Medline raised approximately $6.3 billion in its IPO, priced at $29 per share, with shares listed under ticker MDLN on Nasdaq and rising ~21 % in early trading .
- It was the biggest U.S. IPO since Rivian’s in 2021 .
- IPOs such as Figma and Circle surged ~250 % and ~168 % respectively on debut, suggesting strong investor demand; average first‐day gains for the top 20 U.S. IPOs in 2025 were about 36 % .
- Underwriters’ conservative pricing strategies may have cost IPO issuers an estimated $6.1 billion in forgone proceeds .
- 2025 U.S. IPO activity rebounded: tech, fintech, healthcare and energy sectors saw increases; IPO volume and number of offerings both materially up versus 2024 .
- Looking to 2026, companies such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and others are preparing for IPOs; many bankers are pitching to lead such deals .
- Regulatory and logistical hurdles include the SEC’s backlog of registration statements (900+ during a government shutdown), and macro risks including rising interest rates and trade policy uncertainty .