- a16z closed over $15B across new funds, lifting AUM above $90B and cementing its position among the world’s largest VC firms.
- The raise alone represented over 18% of all U.S. VC fundraising in 2025, a down year that marked the weakest totals since 2017.
- a16z is framing its strategy around U.S.-led technological competition, signaling deeper alignment between venture investing and policy narratives.
- Prediction markets (notably Polymarket and Kalshi) are scaling via regulatory pathways but face mounting scrutiny over contract resolution, insider trading, and federal-versus-state oversight.
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On January 9, 2026, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) announced the closing of over $15 billion in new funds across multiple verticals, including growth, infrastructure, bio/healthcare, and “American dynamism” strategies. This is its largest fundraise ever, and elevates its assets under management to more than $90 billion.
This raise comes against a backdrop of sharply declining venture capital fundraising in the U.S.—from $223B in 2022 to around $66B in 2025—the worst year since 2017. Despite this, a16z captured over 18% of all VC dollars in 2025 with this fresh capital alone.
The thematic lens through which a16z frames this fundraising is increasingly geopolitically charged: it emphasizes the necessity of U.S. leadership in technology amid intensifying competition from China. References to “America,” “United States,” and “American” appear repeatedly in its public communications, indicating a deliberate alignment with national-interest investing.
Separate from the VC world but related by context, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are rapidly scaling amid loosening regulation. Polymarket has secured regulatory re-entry to the U.S. by acquiring QCEX (a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange) and obtaining a “no-action” letter around certain event contracts. Kalshi has raised $1B at an $11B valuation, expanding its media partnerships and product offerings.
However, this rapid ascent has exposed several risks. Polymarket has been criticized for refusing to honor a bet when its contractual terms did not align with external reality in the Venezuela “invasion” case, highlighting challenges in defining contract triggers. Both platforms face legal scrutiny over insider trading—Kalshi has anti-insider policies, while Polymarket currently does not—and there is growing congressional interest in legislation like the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act.
Strategically, a16z’s scale and political framing suggests venture firms are not just investing but also shaping policy narratives. Prediction markets, meanwhile, are at a regulatory inflection point: the industry is being pushed into clearer legal categories, which will influence growth, liquidity, and public perception. For investors, this means enormous opportunity, but also heightened risk—both regulatory and reputational. And for founders and platforms, ensuring clarity in contract design, resolution protocols, and governance will be essential.
Open questions include: How will state-level gambling and betting laws co-exist or conflict with federal regulation of event contracts? How durable is the “America First” narrative in cross-border tech competition? And will institutional capital follow prediction markets to the same extent it has flowed to AI and growth plays?
Supporting Notes
- a16z raised $15.0+ billion across five new funds, including $6.75B for growth, $1.7B for apps, $1.7B for infrastructure, $1.176B for American dynamism, $700M for bio/healthcare, and $3B for other venture strategies.
- With this raise, a16z’s assets under management exceeded $90B, putting it in direct competition with Sequoia Capital.
- Total U.S. venture capital funding dropped to about $66.1B in 2025, down from $101.3B in 2024 and far below 2022 levels, while deal values rebounded in early 2026.
- Polymarket acquired QCEX (a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse) enabling legal U.S. operations, including re-entry into event contracts after regulatory clearance.
- Kalshi raised $1B at roughly an $11B valuation, and has proportionally increased partnerships with CNN, CNBC, and others, pushing visibility and legitimacy.
- Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act to ban government officials from trading in prediction markets; Kalshi supports, and already enforces, strict insider trading bans; Polymarket lacks such explicit bans.
- Polymarket declined to pay out on bets about a U.S. invasion of Venezuela, citing contract terms; over $10.5M placed in aggregate on invasion scenarios.
- a16z just raised more than 18% of all U.S. VC dollars allocated in 2025 with this newest tally.