- Morgan Stanley analysts project JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America as the top “broad business” investment banks in 2026 (excluding Morgan Stanley).
- By division, JPMorgan leads IBD and FICC, while Goldman leads equities sales & trading with JPMorgan and BofA close behind.
- Revenue growth is expected to be led by equities trading in 2025, with IBD rebounding and FICC lagging, followed by a projected equities pullback in 2026.
- The outlook highlights scale advantages for U.S. banks, slower growth for European peers, and risk from macro, regulatory and valuation pressures.
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The report by Morgan Stanley’s investment bank analysts, as presented via eFinancialCareers, segments bank strength into three principal revenue‐areas—investment banking division (IBD, covering ECM, DCM, M&A, loans), equities sales & trading, and FICC (fixed income, currencies and commodities) trading—based on historical revenues (2023-24), estimates for 2025, and forecasts into 2026-28. The exclusion of Morgan Stanley from the rankings underscores an external assessment rather than self‐ranking, although analysts note that Morgan Stanley remains a strong performer particularly in IBD and equities.
Top banks by domain: For Total Broad Business Revenue (all three divisions), the leaders are projected to be JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of America. For IBD only, JPMorgan sits at #1, followed by Goldman and BofA. Equities revenue (sales & trading) is led by Goldman, then JPMorgan and BofA; in FICC, the top are JPMorgan, Citi, then Goldman.
Trends & structural shifts: Equities trading is forecasted to grow ~15 % in 2025, the fastest among revenue lines; origination & advisory revenues are recovering (ECM, DCM rising strongly), while FICC is expected to grow modestly or even decline in some markets. For 2026, equities trading is projected to pull back ~6 %, with FICC down slightly, while advisory/origination continue growing ~9 %.
Morgan Stanley’s positioning: Despite being excluded, the bank has delivered record revenues: Q3 2025 equities revenue +35 % YoY to ~$4.12 billion, driven by derivatives and prime brokerage; investment banking and wealth management units are also posting strong growth. However, its FICC franchise shows vulnerability under weaker macro and funding cost pressures.
Strategic implications: The dominance of large U.S. banks across all divisions suggests increasing scale advantages, especially in equities trading and prime services. European banks are lagging in growth outside FICC, particularly in equities and IBD. For banks outside the top four, differentiation and niche strength (e.g., strong derivatives, subsector focus, or regional leadership) will be essential.
Open questions: How sustainable is the projected pullback in equities trading in 2026—what triggers might validate or derail it? How will evolving regulation (e.g., capital requirements, trading reforms) impact FICC vs equities performance? Will the gap between U.S. and European major banks grow wider, or will European banks find structural tailwinds?
Supporting Notes
- “Top investment banks by total revenues are: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America” per Morgan Stanley’s estimates excluding itself; and for IBD alone: JPM, Goldman, BofA.
- Equities sales & trading tops the divisions for Goldman, with JPM and BofA close behind; FICC leaders are JPMorgan, Citi, and Goldman.
- Morgan Stanley excludes itself from ranking, but is noted as being among top players especially in Equities and IBD.
- Forecasts by Coalition Greenwich predict ~10 % global revenue growth in 2025 for investment banks, with equities trading up ~15 %, origination & advisory up ~8 %, FICC growing ~8+ %; for 2026 equities down ~6 %, FICC slightly negative, advisory/origination ~+9 %.
- In Q3 2025, Morgan Stanley’s equities revenue rose ~35 % YoY to ~$4.12 billion; record prime brokerage balances and strong derivatives performance cited.
- Morgan Stanley’s Q3 2025 investment banking fees also rose materially, and wealth management continues to see net new assets (e.g., $81 billion) and strong fee flows.