- Contract logistics is projected to grow from about $324.6B in 2024 to ~$503.3B by 2030 (~7.8% CAGR).
- Asia-Pacific leads (~34.2% share) with India/China among the fastest growers, while the U.S. is also expanding rapidly (~8.3% CAGR to ~$103.8B by 2030).
- Transportation services and road freight dominate today, with outsourcing central to demand and retail/e-commerce the largest vertical.
- Fastest-growth niches include pharma/healthcare and reverse/aftermarket logistics, amid cost volatility, infrastructure and regulatory frictions, and a push toward automation and digital visibility.
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The contract logistics sector is entering a period of strong growth, underpinned by accelerating e-commerce penetration, globalization of supply chains, and rising expectations over speed and visibility. Grand View Research estimates global market size of USD 324.6 billion in 2024 rising to USD 503.3 billion by 2030, implying a CAGR of approximately 7.8% in the 2025-30 interval. FutureMarketInsights offers a longer-term perspective, projecting growth to USD 621.6 billion by 2035 at a somewhat lower CAGR of ~6.8%. This suggests near-term momentum is likely to be stronger.
Geographically, Asia-Pacific is the key engine: it accounted for ~34.2% share in 2024, with India and China showing the fastest growth. North America is also seeing outsized growth, especially in the U.S., with its contract logistics market expected to grow at ~8.3% CAGR from 2025-2030, reaching approximately USD 103.8 billion by 2030. Europe shows more modest gains given mature market saturation.
On segmentation: the transportation service leads in share (≈34.4% globally in 2024), roadways is dominant transport mode, and outsourcing services make up the bulk of demand. High growth verticals include retail & e-commerce (largest share), pharma & healthcare (fastest growth). Aftermarket services like reverse logistics are expanding rapidly.
Challenges are substantial: input cost volatility (fuel, labor), infrastructure deficiencies (especially in emerging economies), regulatory complexity, trade policy shifts (tariffs, cross-border restrictions), and integration or technology deployment issues. Strategic implications for firms involve investing in robotics/automation, digital visibility tools (AI/IoT/cloud), expanding cold chain and air freight capabilities, building resilience in supply chains (near-shoring, regulatory compliance), and targeting high growth verticals like healthcare and e-commerce.
Open questions include: how persistent will fuel and transportation cost pressures be? What are the risks of geopolitical or trade-policy disruption over the next 3-5 years? How quickly can labor shortages be addressed with automation without pressuring margins? And to what extent will climate regulation and sustainability demands reshape cost structures and service offerings?
Supporting Notes
- Global market size in 2024 estimated at USD 324.6 billion; projected to reach USD 503.3 billion by 2030 (CAGR ~7.8%) per Grand View Research.
- FutureMarketInsights forecast of USD 322.0 billion in 2025 growing to USD 621.6 billion by 2035 (CAGR ~6.8%).
- Asia-Pacific accounted for ~34.2% global share in 2024; China held substantial share; India’s e-commerce projected to grow from USD 123 billion in 2024 to USD 292.3 billion by 2028 at 18.7% CAGR.
- By service, transportation accounted for ~34.4% share in 2024; by transportation mode, roadways was the largest share.
- Outsourcing was the leading type; insourcing also growing among large, sensitive verticals like healthcare and aerospace.
- Retail & e-commerce vertical had the largest share in 2024; pharma & healthcare expected to grow at highest CAGR due to regulated and cold chain requirements.
- United States contract logistics market valued at ~USD 65.16 billion in 2024, projected to reach ~USD 103.79 billion by 2030, growing at ~8.3% CAGR.
- Key players include DHL Supply Chain, GXO Logistics, UPS, DB Schenker, Kuehne + Nagel, DSV, Nippon Express, CEVA, GEODIS, Ryder System.
- Market restraints cited: fuel/transport cost volatility; infrastructure challenges in emerging markets (road connectivity, warehousing, port congestion); regulatory/trade constraints.
- Opportunities driven by automation, AI, digital platforms, air freight growth, last-mile fulfilment, temperature-controlled logistics.