H1 2025 Private Equity: Fundraising Surges, IPOs Stall, Trade Sales Rule Exit Routes

The first half of 2025 marked a noticeable inflection point in global private equity—fundraising activity rebounded significantly, while exit channels, historically critical to LP distributions, continued to lag, particularly IPOs. As noted in the S&P Global report, private equity funds raised US$424.58 billion across 1,081 funds through June, already surpassing 50% of the previous full-year total and showing signs of breaking a three-year decline trend. However, the number of funds closed during the period (1,043) trailed that of H1 2024 (1,325), indicating a consolidation among fewer, larger funds taking market share.

On the exit side, trade or strategic sales were the most reliable source of exits in H1 2025. S&P Global shows trade sales were only slightly down relative to 2024 and accounted for six of the ten largest exits by value globally. In contrast, PE-backed IPOs dropped by ~31% year over year, underscoring the continued impairment in public markets as exit routes. Although there was some recovery in IPOs during Q2—the best quarterly IPO exit value since Q1 2024—the levels remain well below what’s needed to support strong fund‐return pressure.

Larger, established funds and managers are gaining ground. For example, Ardian’s Secondary Fund IX closed at US$30 billion; Thoma Bravo’s Fund XVI at US$24.3 billion; and Insight Partners’ growth buyout fund at US$12.5 billion were among the top closings. LP preferences are shifting: bespoke/private vehicles, high-net-worth and retail channels, and growth strategies are more in demand. With dry powder still abundant, but returns and distributions lagging, LPs’ patience is being tested and their decision calculus increasingly weighs exit prospects and cash flows.

Strategic implications are manifold: The fundraising rebound hinges on exit activity and valuation stability—without improved IPO markets or strategic sales, pressure on valuations and delayed distributions may curtail LP appetite. Market players must navigate macro risks: interest rates remain elevated, trade policy (in the U.S. notably) creates uncertainty, while policy support for IPO markets could make a difference. Alternatives—secondary transactions, continuation vehicles—gain prominence, but bring governance and valuation scrutiny. Exit timing, especially for older portfolio assets, remains a key open question.