- Fintech in 2026 will be dominated by AI-driven bots that automate customer service, credit decisions, and trading workflows across banks and brokers.
- Traditional banks will increasingly operate as regulated infrastructure and balance-sheet providers behind digital-first fintech front ends and embedded finance platforms.
- Stablecoins and tokenized deposits are expected to become core payment rails, enabling near-instant, low-cost settlement for consumers, merchants, and capital markets.
- Regulation, interoperability between blockchains and bank systems, and trust in AI models and stablecoin issuers will determine how quickly this new fintech stack scales.
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The US investment banking sector in 2025 experienced a dramatic rebound, driven by high-value and strategic M&A activity. According to PwC, M&A deal value through November 30, 2025 approached $1.6 trillion, up about 45% year-over-year, though deal volume grew only ~2 %—pointing to a skew towards large transactions. Parallelly, EY-Parthenon reports deal volume for U.S. M&A activity over $100 million is expected to grow 9 % in 2025 and another ~3 % in 2026, with a similar pattern for private equity activity.
From sector dynamics, technology, financial services, and life sciences led the way. A substantial share of megadeals—transactions valued at $5-10B or more—were AI- or tech-adjacent, such as acquisitions of cybersecurity, data infrastructure, and core AI platforms. Lower financing costs, narrowing valuation gaps, and robust balance sheets have encouraged acquirers and sponsors to pursue larger, transformative deals rather than incremental bolt-ons.
US bank M&A saw a strong upswing in 2025. In Q3 alone, 52 bank deals were announced—the highest quarterly count since Q3 2021—and several large bank transactions (notably PNC’s $4.04B acquisition of FirstBank and Fifth Third’s $10.91B deal for Comerica) pushed aggregate values higher. [0search0] States such as Texas continue to be hotspots for target banks, and deal pricing (deal-value to tangible common equity) has set new records in several deals.[0search0]
Strategic implications for investment banks include: capturing megadeal advisory fees, focusing on sectors with strategic urgency like AI, building strength in debt markets and underwriting as IPO activity revives, and advising clients on divestitures/tax-efficient spin-offs. Additionally, banks should help clients manage integration risk and buy-side/sell-side valuation alignment.
Open questions remain: will interest rate cuts materialize sufficiently to sustain deal financing? How will policy shifts (trade, regulation) impact cross-border transactions and valuations? Can middle‐market deal flow rebound, or will the skew toward megadeals deepen? What is the durability of valuation multiples in AI/tech amid economic cyclicality? Banking sector: will regional banks succeed in delivering scale and regulatory compliance?
Supporting Notes
- PwC data: through November 30, 2025, ~10,333 deals in the US worth ~$1.6 trillion; deal value up ~45 % vs 2024; volume up only ~2 % year over year.
- EY-Parthenon forecast: US deal volumes over $100 m to grow 9 % in 2025 and ~3 % in 2026; corporate M&A up ~10 % in 2025, PE up ~8 %, then 3-5 % in 2026.
- US bank M&A hits multi-year high: 52 deals announced in Q3 2025, aggregate value $16.63 billion—largest since Q4 2021. [0search0]
- Notable large transactions: PNC’s $4.04B purchase of FirstBank; Fifth Third’s $10.91B acquisition of Comerica. [0search0]
- Sector leadership: tech, life sciences, financial services most active; more than 20 % of megadeals (>$5 billion) are AI-themed.
- IPO and capital markets recovery: through Nov 30, 2025, 72 IPOs raised $33.6B—surpassing full-year 2024; SPAC IPOs and VC exits also rebounding.
- Valuation trends: deal-value to tangible common equity ratios in some bank deals exceeded 230 %; valuation gaps narrowing overall.
Sources
- www.ey.com (EY) — October 28, 2025
- www.spglobal.com (S&P Global) — October 7, 2025
- www.prnewswire.com (EY-Parthenon via PR Newswire) — October 28, 2025
- www.pwc.com (PwC) — December 2025
- www.spglobal.com (S&P Global) — June 2025